Environment, Science & Technology

Update on China’s Manned Space Program

An October 2003 Report from Embassy Beijing

China is ready to join the United States and Russia in the “manned space flight club” by launching its own manned spacecraft “Shenzhou V” on October 15^th. “Shenzhou” is based on old Russian technology but if the mission is successful, it will certainly generate an authentic wave of national pride as well as propaganda.

Long March into Space

According to press reports, China is expected to launch its first manned “Shenzhou V” space capsule on October 15^th. Chinese National Space Agency officials report that although the Shenzhou V capsule is capable of holding three astronauts, the final decision has not yet been made whether to launch one man or two men.

In late 1999, China launched its first unmanned spacecraft, the “Shenzhou” or “Divine Vessel.” The Shenzhou spacecraft is an enlarged version of the Russian Soyuz spacecraft. It is 13 percent larger than the Russian Soyuz, but is otherwise nearly identical. In December 2002, China successfully launched Shenzhou IV and declared itself ready for manned space flight.

Up to now, China’s space program has had a decidedly military bent. In 1958, Chairman Mao declared that China would develop missiles and satellites. One year later, China launched its first rocket, and in 1970 China launched its first satellite into orbit. It wasn’t until 1992, when then President Jiang Zemin called for a manned spacecraft, that China’s efforts began in earnest. These efforts weren’t without their problems, though. In 1995, a Long March rocket exploded while carrying a communications satellite. In 1996, China lost two other communications satellites, including one U.S. satellite that was placed in the wrong orbit.

Tight Control of Information

China has been reticent about publicizing its space program. Information and media coverage about previous launches of unmanned Shenzhou capsules have been skimpy, fluffy, carefully controlled and mostly after the fact. There have been rumors about problems with prior launches, but since no solid information has been released, those rumors keep circulating.

Little Down Side to Public Relations Coup

There will be genuine pride in attaining the “high ground” of space, something only “major powers” United States and Russia have done. Public sentiment towards space flight is optimistic and proud, and likely to stay that way even if tragedy strikes. If the worst should happen, it would not be a crippling blow to China’s national pride.

This event is seen here as a major milestone, giving evidence of China’s leading position in the community of nations. Manned space flight is an important step, but only one of many in the string of recent economic and political triumphs that China has enjoyed. It is also seen as a major milestone of China’s transition from a low-tech to a high-tech economy.

Colonizing the Moon or Maybe Mars?

China has big ambitions for its space program. Press accounts state that China can utilize previous experience from the United States and Russia to leapfrog into lunar exploration. According to press reports, the first stage of China’s plan is to launch a one to two ton satellite within the next three years to orbit and survey the moon. The satellite would map lunar topography, atmosphere, geography, minerals and gases and look for ice. The second step would be remotely controlled lunar vehicles to explore and map the moon’s surface. A number of domestic research organizations are already engaged in a heated competition to design and develop China’s first lunar vehicle. The third step would be to use robots to find a suitable location and begin preparations for manned landings on the moon.

China’s chief lunar scientist, Ouyang Ziyuan, claims “China is expected to complete its first exploration of the moon in 2010 and will establish a base on the moon as we did at the South Pole and the North Pole.” Chinese scientists have also indicated in numerous press articles that China plans to have a small space station completed in ten years, and in the long-term will undertake manned missions to Mars.

China in Space to Stay

Although the Chinese space program got where it is by borrowing technology from Russia, China is set on a course to supplant the Russians. China is likely to continue to invest significant resources in space. Public confidence is running high, and feelings of nationalism and pride in China can be expected to surge after a successful Shenzhou V mission. Whether a success will lead China to emulate NASA’s high standards of transparency and openness remains to be seen.