Chinese Critics Confront Lester Brown

A report from U.S. Embassy Beijing November 1996

Summary: In a November 8 front page interview in the popular Chinese weekly South China Weekend (Nanfang Zhoumou), Lester Brown and his critics discuss Brownís book íWho Will Feed Chinaí. Chinese critics of Brown variously accuse him variously of racial prejudice, ignorance of the global monopoly stranglehold on the international grain markets and of failing to understand the win-win nature of international trade, and of spreading a "China threat theory". Beijing University Professor Lin Yifu argues that arguments from comparative advantage should persuade China to eventually import 20 - 30 percent of its grain requirements. Brown argues in the South China Weekend interview that not just China, but the entire world, must rethink its food consumption pattern and devote more resources to agriculture. Brown supports China's one child policy and believes that if China can control its population and prevent more farmland from being lost to industrialization Chinese food self-sufficiency can be achieved. End summary.

Chinese Scholars Criticize Lester Brown

-- Journalist Li Xiguang of Nanfang Zhoumou: Brown dares stand up to U.S. opinion in support of China's one child policy and makes many valuable suggestions for China. But Brown, especially since he suggests that China should not follow the U.S. development model, is not taken very seriously by the mainstream U.S. media. -- Pennsylvania State University East Asia Research Center Professor Liu Kang: Brown is highly prejudiced -- he puts the blame for the worldís environmental and food problems on China. Brown fails to recognize Hu Angangís point that the U.S. and the Chinese economies are complementary -- China imports food, the U.S. exports food. We have to put Chinaís problems in world perspective -- and understand how international capitalism exerts hegemonic power on world markets.

-- Chinese Academy of Sciences President Zhou Guangzhao: Achieving sustainable development is a kind of systems engineering project which involves population control, finding employment for the surplus rural work force, environmental protection, and making efficient use of resources and water conservation. Western intellectuals look at China from their own narrow perspective. They just donít understand China. For example the "China threat" theory. In all its history, China has never been an expansionist country. Expansionist thinking has never been in the majority, and what we do have today came mostly from the West. Western intellectuals looking at China need to "Seek common ground but respect differences".

-- Associate Researcher of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Sheng Hong: First, the whole world lives by the rules of free international trade which Westerners have promoted so cheerfully. Why is China importing food different from importing any other resource? Second, in industrial and market economies the use of non-renewable resources (such as oil) and limited-renewability resources (such as grain) results in pressure on resources reflected by the market as a price increase. But whose fault is that? The Westerners have been promoting their values and their development model. Free trading China is not to blame. The blame rests with the rules of the game -- and the Westerners who made the rules. Third, everyone knows that America, Australia and Canada represent the expansion of the English-speaking peoples. They actually developed on land that belonged to someone else -- they were colonial and placed a burden on other people. But Chinese development is on the soil of our own country. Because of special conditions we need international trade to make up for some things we lack at home. And this is what the Westerners seize upon to oppose China. I think some Western intellectuals have betrayed the values of fairness and righteousness which they hold in such great respect. They call Chinaís modernization "immoral" not because they are idiots but because of the racial prejudices embedded in their culture. Views like Brownís express the psychological imbalance some Westerners feel when confronted with Chinese economic success. That is nothing but a sort of narrow nationalism. They should be ashamed of themselves.

-- Beijing Tiance Economic Research Institute Director Mao Yushi: Any Chinese import, be it food, oil or a generator, not only will not place a burden on another country it will actually raise the living standard of the people of that country. International trade benefits both sides. If one side were the winner and the other the loser, there would be no trade. All imports are paid for with exports, so Chinese food imports represent Chinese exports of equivalent value that went to foreign countries. The United States is a food exporting country but is an importing country for many other resources such as oil. Half of all the oil consumed in the United States is imported. These U.S. imports certainly do drive up the cost of oil, but nobody calls the United States immoral for importing that oil. The ones who suffer are people in the developing countries who must pay higher prices for imported oil. For America to turn around and criticize China is certainly a case of "allowing the governor to start a fire but not letting the common people light their lanterns".

-- Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Institute of World Economics and Politics senior researcher Gao Heng: Today among in the U.S. political circles and among U.S. intellectuals are circulating two theories about China the "China threat theory" and the "China crisis theory". According to the "China Threat Theory", if China maintains its current rate of rapid economic growth, the Chinese GNP will surpass that of the United States in the year 2030. China will then become the strongest economic power in the world and dominate more markets and appropriate more resources to itself. Nearby countries will be threatened by Chinese power. The "China Crisis Theory" predicts that the Chinese governmentís inability to solve its various internal crises, the food problem, the population problem, the gap between coastal and interior China will lead to Chinaís collapse. In Brownís article we can see traces of both the China Threat Theory and the China Crisis Theory. Confronted by growing Chinese power, Americans feel uneasy. One the one hand, they want to get into the big Chinese market but on the other hand they keep raising the price of Chinese entry to the WTO. One the one hand they complain that the overly large Chinese population threatens limited global resources but on the other hand use human rights as an excuse to attack Chinese population policy. These contradictory actions reveal the "uneasiness syndrome" of the United States.

-- State Council Economic Development Center, Europe and Asia Social Development Institute researcher Sun Zhenyuan: As scholars, we should look at issues in a scientific manner. China certainly does have a high population and relatively little land which results in food and resource challenges. However the Chinese government is making great efforts to solve these problems by controlling population growth, protecting the environment, and promoting agricultural production. Chinese scientists are studying how to improve soils and crop varieties and developing new types of irrigation systems. The Chinese people not only will not be a burden to the world but will make new contributions to the development of mankind.

China Should Import 20 - 30 Percent of Grain Needs Says Peking University Economics Research Center Professor Lin Yifu

What does it mean to feed oneself? When we say that someone cannot feed himself, it means can this person produce enough food to feed himself or can he earn enough money to buy food for himself. We can extend this idea to a country -- we in China do have the capacity to produce enough food to meet the needs of a population of 1.5 or 1.6 billion people. But is this the best choice? If the pace of Chinese economic development goes a little bit faster, then the buying power of the entire country will become much larger. We could then use a part of that increased purchasing power to buy grain on the international market. Wouldnít that be a better strategy?

Lin continues, the most important think for the economic development of a country is to take advantage of its comparative advantage. The comparative advantage of China is its large population. Its disadvantage is its small territory compared to that population. Therefore, for China to develop as quickly as possible, it should rely on its comparative advantage by producing labor intensive agricultural and industrial products and exchange them on the international market for land intensive agricultural products. Using the Chinese comparative advantage, we will grow labor intensive products such as fruit and vegetables and industrial products and then spend some money to by some grain. That is a better strategy for China. Naturally grain is a very special product -- we canít put our rice bowl completely in the hands of other people. But if we use our comparative advantage, we will produce about 70 percent to 80 percent of our needs in grain so we will go to the international market to meet 20 percent to 30 percent of our grain requirements. Now since China plants two crops a year, China could cause some supply and demand problems on the international market. However, as long as China responds quickly enough and maintains national strategic reserves in grain, going to the international market for grain will not be very risky for China, said Lin.

Some people worry that if China imports some grain some foreigners will use food as a weapon against us. But that is very unlikely. First, the world market is fragmented -- the interests of the United States, Europe, Australia and of Central and South American are all different. Anyone trying to use food as a weapon will not be very successful. Conversely, if Chinese grain imports reach a certain level the initiative will not be in the hands of the foreigners since each country considers its own interests. If China exports more or reduces the amount of grain it imports, then prices on international grain markets would drop sharply and many farmers would face bankruptcy. Given these consequences, any grain exporting country will not make lightly the decision to use food as a weapon. Therefore, as long as China adopts the correct policy, China can achieve its goal of complete self-sufficiency. However, we could also consider making use of Chinaís comparative advantage to accelerate Chinaís economic development. But that decision rests with China, Lin concluded.

South China Weekend Interview with Lester Brown

Question of South China Weekend journalist Li Xiguang: Mr. Brown, after reading your book íWho Will Feed Chinaí, I read American newspapers and then listened to American radio and television. I found that the media reports as well as American opinion and academics are just full of contradictions about China. No matter what the Chinese do they are always wrong. When you argue that China confronts a food crisis arenít you politicizing the food question? Why do you talk about Chinese food imports and then call it "a wake-up call for the world?"

Brown: Over the last two years I have published a series of reports about population, resources and environment problems which I call "wake up calls for the world" and have attracted the attention of government leaders the world over. I support Chinaís family planning policy and population policy. Because of my support for those Chinese policies I have made many people in the West, including members of the U.S. Congress, American public opinion and Pope John Paul unhappy. Moreover, my predictions about the Chinese food problems have made Chinese people unhappy as well.

That the world focuses its attention today on the Chinese food situation is entirely because over the last five years world grain production and the fish catch have not increased. Chinese food demand and imports should be a kind of "wake up call" for world leaders that the world must choose sustainable population and economic policies. Humanity must rethink its food consumption pattern. Now that world food production is not increasing, should Americans continue their high consumption life style? Is there a couple on this world who can rationally decide to have more than two children? Should we continue to use human rights or humanism as slogans for defending people who have many children? Should the people of other countries try to achieve the high consumption U.S. lifestyle? Should Americans continue their present lifestyle merely because they have the purchasing power to do it? Washington decision makers and opinion should rethink these very basic questions.

Brown: Rapid Growth in Chinese Income Brings Higher Food Consumption and Imports

Li: In your book íWho Will Feed Chinaí you say that because the Chinese taste for fowl, fish, meat, eggs and even milk, beer and ice cream is growing, they will eat up all the food on the world market. On what to you base this view? Brown: The Chinese economy has grown at the astonishing rate of 56 percent and per capita income along with it by 50 percent over the past four years. Now that their income is increasing, people who formerly could not eat their fill now are want to eat a richer variety of foods. From rice and vegetables they are switching to a more varied diet which includes fowl, fish, meat, milk, and even ice cream. Chinese per capita meat consumption rose from 8 kilograms in 1977 to 32 kilograms in 1994. China is getting closer to the pork consumption level of the Western countries. Chinese consumption of fowl and meat tripled from 1.9 million tons in 1986 to 5.5 million tons in 1994. As Chinese meat consumption rises, China must consume more grain as well. Now that Chinese confronts an ever more serious water shortage, that rapid industrialization is destroying farmland, and that the Chinese population increases by a Beijing City every year, China will be forced to import large amounts of grain to feed its population of 1.2 billion people. These Chinese imports will very likely cause a sharp increase in world food prices. The world economy is integrated. The Chinese food supply problem will have a serious effect on the supply of food the world over.

Brown: Chinese Leaders Disagree With Him In Public, But Have Food Security Concerns

Li: The Chinese scholar Hu Angang charges that you are creating a new "Chinese threat" theory. The director of the Chinese National Environmental Protection Agency and the Chinese Minister of Agriculture also disagree with you and say that the Chinese people can feed themselves. What is your response?

Brown: It was in the China Daily that I first say Hu Angangís critique of my views. Hu Angang in that article argued that at the time of the founding of the PRC in 1949, the then U.S. Secretary of State said that China would not be able to feed its population of 500 million. History has shown that he was wrong. Hu Angang accepts my point that as the income of the Chinese people rises their food consumption will also rise but rejects my predictions on Chinese food production. Hu says that China has great potential to increase food production and that I underestimate Chinese food production potential. In February 1995, I accepted the invitation of the Norwegian Prime Minister to address a meeting of the worldís environment ministers at the first international conference to discuss sustainable development. In my address to the conference, I said that China may become a "big food importing country" and as a "wake up call to the world" I suggested that all countries should increase their population control measures and boost their investment in agriculture.

After the address, I left for the airport. Later, I read a Xinhua Press Agency dispatch in the "India Times" which reported that the Chinese National Environmental Protection Agency Director Jie Zhenhua stated for my analysis of Chinese food issues is completely unfounded. He stated that since China enjoys an excellent agricultural production capacity, has very successful family planning policies, China can, by relying on advances in science and technology and the development of the economy, feed itself. In Spring 1995, Xinhua reported articles by Zhou Guangzhao, President of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and by Minister of Agriculture Liu Zhangtan on Chinese agricultural self-sufficiency which were written in response to my thesis. During February and March 1995, President Jiang Zemin and Premier Li Peng both stressed the importance of agriculture.

Brown Supports Chinaís One Child Policy

Li: In order that people on both sides of this argument can make some calm, thoughtful observations on some issues to the other side, I hope that you will calmly and directly discuss the food challenges which China faces and give China a few constructive suggestions. Brown: First of all, let me say that although the U.S. Congress and U.S. opinion strongly criticizes China for a family planning policy as a violation of human rights, I believe that China chose a entirely correct path of population development. The difference between China and other countries is that China has the courage to look ahead 30 or 40 years and see how all mankind will suffer from a high population that damages the quality of human life and creates great problems in water resources, the food supply, employment and other areas. China began its "two child family" policy in the 1970s. If China had adopted this policy in the 1950s and 1960s, it would be in a much better situation today. Chinaís population will continue to grow. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Chinaís population will peak in the year 2044 at 1.66 billion people and then will start to decline slowly. Chinese Academy of Sciences President Zhou Guangzhao believes that 800 million is the ideal Chinese population. I believe that the Chinese population in 2044 will be 1.4 billion and not 1.66 billion.

Brown: If China Controls Population, Conserves Land, It Can Feed Itself

Li: What economic development policies do you believe China should adopt, aside from population control, in order to solve the Chinese food problem?

Brown: China cannot solve its food problem by population control alone. China needs to make large investments in agricultural infrastructure, in irrigation systems running from its rivers to its fields, and in the rational use of its water resources. I believe that China invests too little in the efficient use of its water resources. China needs to exert still more effort to protect its precious agricultural land. Most of the rapid recent development of Chinese industry has been in South China. The farmland in these provinces, which can grow two or even three crops a year, is among the most productive farmland in the entire world. But it is just in these areas where the most agricultural land has been destroyed and why Chinese rice production has dropped 8 percent since 1990. In 1994, Beijing decided to develop the Chinese automotive industry and make it one of the pillars of the Chinese economy. If China actually chooses to build a transportation system built around the automobile, China will lose much more good farmland to the widening of roads, to highways and to parking lots. The United States has already made this mistake. I hope that China will not make the same mistake.

What China needs is not an automobile-centered transportation system, but a modern light rail system or a high speed railroad system. Since China has a backward transportation system, it is like a blackboard with no writing on it. China is free to choose to develop the most advanced transportation system. Such a system can meet most of Chinaís transportation needs. If China makes the right choice, it will be a model for the entire world for the development of transportation. If China controls its population and conserves its agricultural land, than China will not need to import food to survive. This suggestion is nothing new. In an early 1994 New York Times article "Vigorous New China in a Race With Time", Zhou Guangzhao expressed similar views.

Why Focus on a Chinese Food Crisis?

Li: Africa is hungry and the Russian harvest is poor. Why do you only ask "Who Will Feed China?". Why not ask who will feed Africa or who will feed Russia?

Brown: The Chinese economy is now the most dynamic in the world. Chinaís situation is different from Africaís. Chinaís grain import deficit is the result of industrial and economic success. The ever-increasing African food deficit is the result of rapid population growth and the failure of economic development. Africa doesnít have the money to buy food. The only way Africa can make up for its food deficit is to tighten its belt a few more notches and live with hunger. The difference between China and Africa is that Chinese has extensive foreign trade. For example, Chinaís foreign trade surplus was enough to buy all the grain on the international grain export market. For China the problem is not whether China has the money to purchase foreign grain but whether China wants to or needs to purchase foreign grain.

Comparing China and Russia is another matter. Following the break-up of the Soviet Union, Russian demand for imported grain has fallen off dramatically in four years. Russian grain imports fell from 15 million tons to 20,000 tons. Russian imports dropped not because of a sudden spurt in Russian agricultural production. Russian grain demand fell because of the deteriorating Russian economy and lower Russian purchasing power. Russian chose to eat less meat, milk and eggs. But since meat, milk and egg production all require grain inputs, this drop in demand results in a correspondingly large drop in total Russian grain demand. And it is in this context that Chinese grain demand is rising rapidly. If Russia were still importing grain at 1990 levels, prices on the world grain market would be even higher.

Li: The Chinese Academy of Sciences has conducted successful irrigation experiments in North China. Chinese scientists expect that improved crop varieties and improved agricultural technology will boost Chinese agricultural production.

Brown: I am concerned that there are limits to increases in production obtainable through advances in technology. This is especially true for chemical fertilizer inputs. During the thirty years between 1959 and 1989 farmers kept increasing the amount of chemical fertilizer they put on their fields. But in the 1990s, chemical fertilizer use by American farmers is lower than it was in 1980. Agricultural productivity is no longer as sensitive as it was once to increases in chemical fertilizer inputs. China, with less arable land than the United States, uses 50 percent more chemical fertilizer. I expect that chemical fertilizer use in China will decrease soon as well. Li: Can mankind solve the food challenges which confront us?

Brown: As long as we are determined, this problem can be solved. We need to reallocate our financial resources and pay more attention to the environmental support system of our economy -- soil and water resources.

How Should the U.S. View Chinaís Food Challenge?

Li: How should the U.S government, academics and public opinion view the Chinese food problem?

Brown: Americans should first of all understand the importance of Chinaís population control and one child policies. I feel that most Americans just donít understand the terrible pressure that it population puts on Chinese resources. Secondly, the United States should transfer some advanced agricultural technology to China. However, I donít think that Chinese lags far behind the United States in agricultural technology. The most important challenges China faces are the deterioration of farmland and the shortage of water resources. The urgent matter is that Chinese and American scientists and experts come together and devise a highly water efficient irrigation technology.

If the U.S. government were to think seriously about national security and the future, it would reallocate large sums of money away from arms to protecting the world environment, controlling the growth of the world population, protecting world water resources and development and the transfer of agricultural technology. Food security issues are no less a threat to U.S. national security than the 1941 Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor. Rising world food prices can lead to political instability -- and political instability could disrupt the world trading system.

Here are some solutions: restore land to agricultural production; develop a healthy method of dieting and promote it; adopt tougher birth control measures for population control; develop a modern transportation system and reduce the role of the automobile; transform todayís fossil fuel economy into an economy based on solar power and hydroelectric power.

Li: Many people call you the father of the "China threatens the world grain market" theory. Many Chinese want to know more about you. What in your background led you to your great interest in food issues?

Brown: I was born on a farm in New Jersey and grew potatoes from my childhood years on. While studying at University, I received a "genius award" from the U.S. president. I got honorary degrees from the University of Maryland, Harvard University and the University of Pisa. I published my first book, "Humanity, Land and Food: Looking at World Food Demand" in 1963 when I was 29 years old. After graduating from university, I was a researcher at the U.S. Department of Agriculture and an advisor to the Secretary of Agriculture. After leaving the Department of Agriculture, I founded the Worldwatch Institute in my own name. The Worldwatch Institute is a private research institute with 30 permanent researchers which obtains its annual budget of US$4 million from various foundations and international organizations. For my work on environmental issues I won the United Nations Award in 1989 and the 1995 Blue Star Award. I have published 25 books on the environmental movement thus far. Books published in the last two years include "The Last Green Land", "How Much is Enough? Consumer Society and the Future of the Planet", and "Omens of a Life and Death Crisis".

Li: I hope that the American academic world and opinion will not politicize your views or use them to spread further the "China threat theory".

Brown: I believe that people in developing countries have the right to improve their lives. China has the opportunity to become a model to the entire world in this respect.

"Science and Education for a Prosperous China" Series

"Science and Education for a Prosperous China" written by the State Science and Technology Commission (SSTC) (overview) elaborates on the national science policy propounded in the CPC Central Committee and State Council "Decision on Accelerating the Progress of Science and Technology" and in speeches by President Jiang Zemin and Premier Li Peng Chinese S&T Policy: A View From the Top . Reports in this series summarize and comment at greater length this 400 page document written for Chinese Communist Party (CPC) and Chinese government officials. The reports summarize and analyze the economic, food security (including the Lester Brown "Who Will Feed China?" controversy and Chinese Critics Confront Lester Brown) , the challenges of absorbing and creating technology and military aspects of the new Chinese S&T policy which emerged from the May 1995 conference. The reports also summarize and analyze the environmental portion of the SSTC volume. The SSTC volume examines S&T lessons China can draw from the S&T policies of other countries as well as lessons China draws from its own S&T experience since 1949. The report Chinese S&T and the Challenge of WTO Accession reviews the effect of S&T on the risks and rewards China will encounter when it joins the WTO.