China's One Child Policy, Two Child Reality

A report from U.S. Embassy Beijing October 1997

Summary. Chinese experts attending the IUSSP demography conference nearly all estimated current PRC total fertility at the 2.1 replacement level fertility rate. This is considerably higher than the 1.8 government estimate. The demographers agreed that, although the one child policy is real for Chinaís urban population (29 percent), the national fertility is about 2.1 given much higher fertility in rural and minority areas. Several demographers predicted 1.596 billion Chinese in 2045 if the current fertility rate continued. Chinese demographers argued vigorously with each other about fertility and population. Several participants argued that only by combining economic development, education, and poverty alleviation to family planning efforts could China limit its population. The highly critical approach PRC scholars took to their data was partly the result of years of UNFPA-funded training for Chinese demographers.

PRC Population and Sustainable Development

ESTOFF attended the session on population and sustainable development in China in the day-long symposium on ìThe Demography of Chinaî. The symposium was held on October 12, the first day of the week-long meeting of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population (IUSSP) held October 11 - 17 in Beijing. Cosponsors of the Beijing meeting included the sponsored by the State Family Planning Commission of China and the UNFPA. Over 100 Chinese demographers and a sprinkling of foreign experts attended the October 12 session.

A Last Minute Change? Portion of Graph Below 2.1 Erased

Of particular note was that Chinese demographers used the total fertility rate of 2.1 (the replacement level) routinely in their discussions despite the fact that the Chinese government claims a total national fertility rate of 1.8. A chart showing declining fertility prominently among a series of posters on Chinese population set up at the conference, apparently by Chinese government officials, showed PRC fertility dropping 2.0 to 1.7 in 1997. The portion of the line between 2.0 to 1.7 was scratched out and erased with white paint. The whited out area covered exactly the difference between the 1.8 government figure and the 2.0 - 2.1 figure for the current PRC total fertility rate used routinely by Chinese demographers at the conference. Population projections displayed at the conference show that a slight increase in fertility over 2.1 would produce a much larger PRC population by the mid 21st Century. A fertility rate of 2.3 would result in a 1.65 billion population in 2050; a 2.4 total fertility rate would result in a population of 1.8 billion people.

The Experts Argue: Is Data Good Enough to Create a Meaningful PRC Population Growth Model?

The most remarkable scenes at the October 12 IUSSP Symposium on the Demography of China were of Chinese demographers arguing with each other about the fertility and the ultimate size of the Chinese population.

Xu Yi of the Beijing Institute of Information and Control presented several computer model-generated scenarios for Chinaís population growth and pressure on Chinaís resources. Xu used the figure of about the 2.1 replacement level for Chinese fertility and projected a Chinese population of 1.596 billion for the year 2044. Xu said that with somewhat higher fertility rates, the final population could be much higher. After Xuís presentation, one demographer said that Chinese population data is not reliable enough to make projections and nobody knows what Chinaís total fertility rate is.

Feng Jiuzhang, director of the department of demography in a Nanjing school that trains family planning cadres (the Nanjing College for Population Programme Management), defended Xu's presentation and the 2.1 fertility rate estimate. Feng argued that fertility is near 1.0 in China's urban areas where 29 percent of the population lives. Family planning does not really apply to the minorities who constitute 8 percent of China's population, so minorities have no incentive to underreport. Family planning and statistical work is also successful in the villages of eastern China. Population statistics, therefore, are basically accurate and the PRC total fertility rate is no greater than 2.1. Loud applause came from the back of the room, (apparently from Family Planning Commission officials) but the demographers in the front and the middle part of the room sat on their hands. The skeptical demographer who had posed the original question replied, "Nobody knows when Chinaís population will stop growing." An elderly demographer from Gansu told that group that China should not be talking about sustainable development, since development implies that the problem of basic subsistence has been solved, which is not the case.

What is PRC Fertility? Experts Cluster Around 2.1 Level

PRC demographers believe that the current PRC total fertility rate is 2.0 or 2.1. Beijing University Professor Zeng Yi, a leading PRC demographer is on the advisory committee to the State Family Planning Committee, told ESTOFF on October 11 that the current total fertility rate is 2.0. Another leading PRC demographer, Fudan University demographer Peng Xizhe estimated the fertility rate at 2.1 during an October 16 session. The great majority of the estimates heard during the IUSSP conference were 2.1. PRC demographers appear to be acutely skeptical of census data and are adjusting official figures to estimate the most likely figure.

PRC Demographers Make the Most of Bad Data

Although the PRC conducted a one percent sampling survey of the population in 1995, most presentations used the 1990 one percent sampling survey and census data instead. Some of this may be because the 1995 data was released just one year ago. However, on two different occasions ESTOFF heard demographers disparaging the 1995 data. Some of this data is available in the China Population Statistics Yearbook published by the China Statistics Publishing Company in December 1996. South Korean Choe Minja Kim, a commentator on the ìMortality Trends in Chinaî panel, remarked on the critical approach and analytical tools PRC demographers now use to make the best of their data. She said that since the PRC demographers are acutely aware of the shortcomings of the Chinese census data, rapid improvements in data quality are likely.

Economic Development Helps Limit Population Growth

Mu Guangzong of Beijing Peopleís University said that environment, economic, social and population issues need to be studied as a system in order to be properly understood. Population increases do not have a direct effect on the environment, but rather the effect on the environment depends upon per capita consumption fully as much as the size of the population. Unplanned development and poverty cause environmental damage and unchecked population growth. Chinaís experience shows, said Mu, that education and development complement family planning. What he sees is that poor people have more and more children, but people do not become poor because they have many children. People limit the number of children voluntarily rather than impoverishing themselves. Family planning can be successful when combined with education and economic development, concluded Mu.

Wang Qiming of the PRC Agenda 21 Office made similar points. Wang said that since 1994 population issues have become an important part of the work of the Agenda 21 office. Wang added that poverty alleviation, womenís education, urbanization, social welfare, and old age pensions are all have links to family planning. Wang suggested that PRC government poverty alleviation efforts might give priority to those impoverished areas that have been most successful in limiting population growth.

Chinese Fertility Rate Dropped from 5.6 in 70s to 2.1

Shen Yimin of the Population and Environment Society of China remarked that the drop in Chinaís fertility rate from 5.6 in the 1950s and 1960s to 2.1 today is the fastest and most drastic fertility decline in the history of humankind. At a total fertility rate of 2.1 a human population stops growing eventually. Adjusting to the consequences of this decline will be very painful, said Shen, since a very large proportion of old people in China will place enormous strains on society in the years ahead.

Not Just Population Growth But Low Per Capita Resource Endowment, Poor Efficiency Also Key Problems

Shen Yimin of the Population and Environment Society of China said that China's 1997 population of 1.23 billion people would reach 1.5 billion at mid-century if family planning is successful, but as high as 1.6 or 1.7 billion if not successful. Shen attributed the success to government policy, the terms of the contract responsibility system, and family planning work among fertile women. More detailed family planning laws and regulations are needed so that Chinaís family planning system operates on a strict legal basis.

China although rich in resources in absolute terms, has only about 60 percent of the world average endowment of the 35 most important minerals on a per capita basis. Compared with the per capita world average endowment of various resources, China has one-third the cultivated land, one-fourth the water resources, one-sixth the forest area, one-seventh the forest and one-third the grassland area. According to the China 1994 Environmental Conditions Report, said Shen, in 1994 acid rain fell on 82 percent of Chinese cities, waste water discharge amounted to 36.53 billion tons, and industrial solid waste to 620 million tons.

Boost Resource Utilization Efficiency to Cut Waste and Pollution

Not just population growth, but inefficient resource use and inadequate environmental protection are among the causes of these problems, said Shen. If Chinaís GDP unit energy efficiency were to reach the level of the advanced countries, China could save 300 million tons of coal each year. Chinaís consumption of resources such as aluminum, copper, and steel to produce a unit of GDP is far higher than that of the advanced countries.

PRC Demographers Thank UNFPA For Training

Fudan University Professor Peng Lizhe, in a closing address to the IUSSP, attributed the rapid progress of PRC demography largely to the work of the United Nations Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA), which has for many years supported training for PRC demographers, including a program at the Institute of Population at Beijing University.

Future reports in this series based on scholarly presentations on China at the IUSSP conference will examine issues such as: how the rapidly aging Chinese population has given some PRC demographers second thoughts about the wisdom of the one child policy; skewed sex ratios; the reasons for widely differing results in family planning from province to province; and the apparent consensus among Chinese demographers at the conference that only through market-driven family planning based on economic incentives and not strict administrative measures can China hope to limit its population.